Allopurinol and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ischaemic heart disease: the ALL-HEART RCT and economic evaluation.

Background: Allopurinol is a xanthine oxidase inhibitor that lowers serum uric acid and is used to prevent acute gout flares in patients with gout. Observational and small interventional studies have suggested beneficial cardiovascular effects of allopurinol. Objective: To determine whether allopurinol improves major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ischaemic heart disease. Design: Prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint multicentre clinical trial. Setting: Four hundred and twenty-four UK primary care practices. Participants: Aged 60 years and over with ischaemic heart disease but no gout. Interventions: Participants were randomised (1 : 1) using a central web-based randomisation system to receive allopurinol up to 600 mg daily that was added to usual care or to continue usual care. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or cardiovascular death. Secondary outcomes were non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, hospitalisation for heart failure, hospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, hospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome or coronary revascularisation, all cardiovascular hospitalisations, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. The hazard ratio (allopurinol vs. usual care) in a Cox proportional hazards model was assessed for superiority in a modified intention-to-treat analysis. Results: From 7 February 2014 to 2 October 2017, 5937 participants were enrolled and randomised to the allopurinol arm (n = 2979) or the usual care arm (n = 2958). A total of 5721 randomised participants (2853 allopurinol; 2868 usual care) were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis population (mean age 72.0 years; 75.5% male). There was no difference between the allopurinol and usual care arms in the primary endpoint, 314 (11.0%) participants in the allopurinol arm (2.47 events per 100 patient-years) and 325 (11.3%) in the usual care arm (2.37 events per 100 patient-years), hazard ratio 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.21); p = 0.65. Two hundred and eighty-eight (10.1%) participants in the allopurinol arm and 303 (10.6%) participants in the usual care arm died, hazard ratio 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.20); p = 0.77. The pre-specified health economic analysis plan was to perform a 'within trial' cost-utility analysis if there was no statistically significant difference in the primary endpoint, so NHS costs and quality-adjusted life-years were estimated over a 5-year period. The difference in costs between treatment arms was +£115 higher for allopurinol (95% confidence interval £17 to £210) with no difference in quality-adjusted life-years (95% confidence interval -0.061 to +0.060). We conclude that there is no evidence that allopurinol used in line with the study protocol is cost-effective. Limitations: The results may not be generalisable to younger populations, other ethnic groups or patients with more acute ischaemic heart disease. One thousand six hundred and thirty-seven participants (57.4%) in the allopurinol arm withdrew from randomised treatment, but an on-treatment analysis gave similar results to the main analysis. Conclusions: The ALL-HEART study showed that treatment with allopurinol 600 mg daily did not improve cardiovascular outcomes compared to usual care in patients with ischaemic heart disease. We conclude that allopurinol should not be recommended for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with ischaemic heart disease but no gout. Future work: The effects of allopurinol on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ischaemic heart disease and co-existing hyperuricaemia or clinical gout could be explored in future studies. Trial registration: This trial is registered as EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT 2013-003559-39) and ISRCTN (ISRCTN 32017426). Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 11/36/41) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 18. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The purpose of the ALL-HEART study was to determine whether giving allopurinol to people with ischaemic heart disease (also commonly known as coronary heart disease) would reduce their risk of having a heart attack, stroke or of dying from cardiovascular disease. Allopurinol is a medication usually given to patients with gout to prevent acute gout flares. It is not currently used to treat ischaemic heart disease. We randomly allocated people aged over 60 years with ischaemic heart disease to take up to 600 mg of allopurinol daily (in addition to their usual care) or to continue with their usual care. We then monitored participants for several years and recorded any major health events such as heart attacks, strokes and deaths. We obtained most of the follow-up data from centrally held electronic hospital admissions and death records, making the study easier for participants and more cost-efficient. We asked participants in both groups to complete questionnaires to assess their quality of life during the study. We also collected data to determine whether there was any economic benefit to the NHS of using allopurinol in patients with ischaemic heart disease. There was no difference in the risk of heart attacks, strokes or death from cardiovascular disease between the participants given allopurinol and those in the group continuing their usual care. We also found no difference in the risks of other cardiovascular events, deaths from any cause or quality-of-life measurements between the allopurinol and usual care groups. The results of the ALL-HEART study suggest that we should not recommend that allopurinol be given to people with ischaemic heart disease to prevent further cardiovascular events or deaths.

Allopurinol versus usual care in UK patients with ischaemic heart disease (ALL-HEART): a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial.

BACKGROUND: Allopurinol is a urate-lowering therapy used to treat patients with gout. Previous studies have shown that allopurinol has positive effects on several cardiovascular parameters. The ALL-HEART study aimed to determine whether allopurinol therapy improves major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ischaemic heart disease. METHODS: ALL-HEART was a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial done in 18 regional centres in England and Scotland, with patients recruited from 424 primary care practices. Eligible patients were aged 60 years or older, with ischaemic heart disease but no history of gout. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1), using a central web-based randomisation system accessed via a web-based application or an interactive voice response system, to receive oral allopurinol up-titrated to a dose of 600 mg daily (300 mg daily in participants with moderate renal impairment at baseline) or to continue usual care. The primary outcome was the composite cardiovascular endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. The hazard ratio (allopurinol vs usual care) in a Cox proportional hazards model was assessed for superiority in a modified intention-to-treat analysis (excluding randomly assigned patients later found to have met one of the exclusion criteria). The safety analysis population included all patients in the modified intention-to-treat usual care group and those who took at least one dose of randomised medication in the allopurinol group. This study is registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT 2013-003559-39, and ISRCTN, ISRCTN32017426. FINDINGS: Between Feb 7, 2014, and Oct 2, 2017, 5937 participants were enrolled and then randomly assigned to receive allopurinol or usual care. After exclusion of 216 patients after randomisation, 5721 participants (mean age 72·0 years [SD 6·8], 4321 [75·5%] males, and 5676 [99·2%] white) were included in the modified intention-to-treat population, with 2853 in the allopurinol group and 2868 in the usual care group. Mean follow-up time in the study was 4·8 years (1·5). There was no evidence of a difference between the randomised treatment groups in the rates of the primary endpoint. 314 (11·0%) participants in the allopurinol group (2·47 events per 100 patient-years) and 325 (11·3%) in the usual care group (2·37 events per 100 patient-years) had a primary endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 1·04 [95% CI 0·89-1·21], p=0·65). 288 (10·1%) participants in the allopurinol group and 303 (10·6%) participants in the usual care group died from any cause (HR 1·02 [95% CI 0·87-1·20], p=0·77). INTERPRETATION: In this large, randomised clinical trial in patients aged 60 years or older with ischaemic heart disease but no history of gout, there was no difference in the primary outcome of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular death between participants randomised to allopurinol therapy and those randomised to usual care. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Motor development in infancy and spine shape in early old age: Findings from a British birth cohort study.

Spine shape changes dramatically in early life, influenced by attainment of developmental milestones such as independent walking. Whether these associations persist across life is unknown. Therefore, we investigated associations between developmental milestones and spine shape, as determined using statistical shape models (SSMs) of lumbar spine from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans in 1327 individuals (688 female) at 60 to 64 years in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Lumbar lordosis angle (L4 inferior endplate to T12 superior endplate) was measured using the two-line Cobb method. In analyses adjusted for sex, height, lean and fat mass, socioeconomic position, and birthweight, later walking age was associated with greater lordosis described by SSM1 (regression coefficient, 0.023; 95% CI, 0.000-0.047; P = .05) and direct angle measurement. Modest associations between walking age and less variation in anterior-posterior vertebral size caudally (SSM6) were also observed (0.021; 95% CI, -0.002 to 0.044; P = .07). Sex interactions showed that later walking was associated with larger relative vertebral anterior-posterior dimensions in men (SSM3; -0.043; 95% CI, -0.075 to 0.01; P = .01) but not women (0.018; 95% CI, -0.0007 to 0.043; P = .17). Similar associations were observed between age at independent standing and SSMs but there was little evidence of association between sitting age and spine shape. Unadjusted associations between walking age and SSMs 1 and 6 remained similar after adjustment for potential confounders and mediators. This suggests that these associations may be explained by altered mechanical loading of the spine during childhood growth, although other factors could contribute. Early life motor development, particularly walking, may have a lasting effect on the features of spine morphology with clinical significance.

Statistical shape modelling provides a responsive measure of morphological change in knee osteoarthritis over 12 months.

OBJECTIVES: Responsive biomarkers are needed to assess the progression of OA and their lack has hampered previous clinical trials. Statistical shape modelling (SSM) from radiographic images identifies those at greatest risk of fast-progression or joint replacement, but its sensitivity to change has not previously been measured. This study evaluates the responsiveness of SSM in knee OA in a 12-month observational study. METHODS: A total of 109 people were recruited who had undergone knee radiographs in the previous 12 months, and were grouped based on severity of radiographic OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grading). An SSM was built from three dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at 6-month intervals. Change-over-time and OA were assessed using generalized estimating equations, standardized response means (SRM) and reliable change indices. RESULTS: Mode 1 showed typical features of radiographic OA and had a strong link with Kellgren-Lawrence grading but did not change significantly during the study. Mode 3 showed asymmetrical changes consistent with medial cartilage loss, osteophytes and joint malalignment, and was responsive to change, with a 12-month SRM of 0.63. The greatest change was observed in the moderate radiographic OA group (SRM 0.92) compared with the controls (SRM 0.21), and the reliable change index identified 14% of this group whose progression was clinically significant. CONCLUSION: Shape changes linked the progression of osteophytosis with increasing malalignment within the joint. Modelling of the whole joint enabled quantification of change beyond the point where bone-to-bone contact has been made. The knee SSM is, therefore, a responsive biomarker for radiographic change in knees over 12 months.

Perinatal factors associate with vertebral size and shape but not lumbar lordosis in 10-year-old children.

The intrauterine environment is known to influence foetal development and future health. Low birthweight has been linked to smaller vertebral canals in children and decreased adulthood spine bone mineral content. Perinatal factors affecting lumbar spine curvature have not yet been considered but could be important for adult spinal health, as lumbar movement during lifting, a risk factor for backpain, is associated with lordosis. To investigate this, lumbar spine magnetic resonance images at age 10 years and perinatal and maternal data (birthweight, placental weight, gestation length, crown-heel length, maternal age, height, weight and smoking status) from 161 children born in Aberdeen in 1988-1989 were acquired. Statistical shape modelling, using principal component analysis, quantified variations in lumbar spine shape and resulting modes of variation were assessed in combination with perinatal data using correlations and analyses of covariance, adjusted for potential confounders. Spine modes 1-3 (SM1-SM3) captured 75% of the variation in lumbar spine shape. The first and third modes described the total amount (SM1) and evenness of curvature distribution (SM3). SM2 accounted for variations in antero-posterior vertebral diameter relative to vertebral height, increasing positive scores representing a larger relative diameter. Adjusting for gestation length and sex, SM2 positively correlated with birthweight (r = 0.25, P < 0.01), placental weight (r = 0.20, P = 0.04), crown-heel length (r = 0.36, P < 0.001) and maternal weight (r = 0.19, P = 0.04), and negatively with maternal age (r = -0.22, P = 0.02). SM2 scores were lower in girls (P < 0.001) and in the low birthweight group (P = 0.02). There were no significant differences in SM1 and SM3 scores between birthweight groups, boys and girls or children of smokers (31%) and non-smokers (69%). In conclusion, some perinatal factors were associated with vertebral body morphology but had little effect on lumbar curvature.

Age at Onset of Walking in Infancy Is Associated With Hip Shape in Early Old Age.

Bones' shapes and structures adapt to the muscle and reaction forces they experience during everyday movements. Onset of independent walking, at approximately 12 months, represents the first postnatal exposure of the lower limbs to the large forces associated with bipedal movements; accordingly, earlier walking is associated with greater bone strength. However, associations between early life loading and joint shape have not been explored. We therefore examined associations between walking age and hip shape at age 60 to 64 years in 1423 individuals (740 women) from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a nationally representative British birth cohort. Walking age in months was obtained from maternal interview at age 2 years. Ten modes of variation in hip shape (HM1 to HM10), described by statistical shape models, were ascertained from DXA images. In sex-adjusted analyses, earlier walking age was associated with higher HM1 and HM7 scores; these associations were maintained after further adjustment for height, body composition, and socioeconomic position. Earlier walking was also associated with lower HM2 scores in women only, and lower HM4 scores in men only. Taken together, this suggests that earlier walkers have proportionately larger (HM4) and flatter (HM1, HM4) femoral heads, wider (HM1, HM4, HM7) and flatter (HM1, HM7) femoral necks, a smaller neck-shaft angle (HM1, HM4), anteversion (HM2, HM7), and early development of osteophytes (HM1). These results suggest that age at onset of walking in infancy is associated with variations in hip shape in older age. Early walkers have a larger femoral head and neck and smaller neck-shaft angle; these features are associated with reduced hip fracture risk, but also represent an osteoarthritic-like phenotype. Unlike results of previous studies of walking age and bone mass, associations in this study were not affected by adjustment for lean mass, suggesting that associations may relate directly to skeletal loading in early life when joint shape changes rapidly. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Identification of Novel Loci Associated With Hip Shape: A Meta-Analysis of Genomewide Association Studies.

We aimed to report the first genomewide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived hip shape, which is thought to be related to the risk of both hip osteoarthritis and hip fracture. Ten hip shape modes (HSMs) were derived by statistical shape modeling using SHAPE software, from hip DXA scans in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; adult females), TwinsUK (mixed sex), Framingham Osteoporosis Study (FOS; mixed), Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study (MrOS), and Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF; females) (total N = 15,934). Associations were adjusted for age, sex, and ancestry. Five genomewide significant (p < 5 × 10-9 , adjusted for 10 independent outcomes) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were associated with HSM1, and three SNPs with HSM2. One SNP, in high linkage disequilibrium with rs2158915 associated with HSM1, was associated with HSM5 at genomewide significance. In a look-up of previous GWASs, three of the identified SNPs were associated with hip osteoarthritis, one with hip fracture, and five with height. Seven SNPs were within 200 kb of genes involved in endochondral bone formation, namely SOX9, PTHrP, RUNX1, NKX3-2, FGFR4, DICER1, and HHIP. The SNP adjacent to DICER1 also showed osteoblast cis-regulatory activity of GSC, in which mutations have previously been reported to cause hip dysplasia. For three of the lead SNPs, SNPs in high LD (r2 > 0.5) were identified, which intersected with open chromatin sites as detected by ATAC-seq performed on embryonic mouse proximal femora. In conclusion, we identified eight SNPs independently associated with hip shape, most of which were associated with height and/or mapped close to endochondral bone formation genes, consistent with a contribution of processes involved in limb growth to hip shape and pathological sequelae. These findings raise the possibility that genetic studies of hip shape might help in understanding potential pathways involved in hip osteoarthritis and hip fracture. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Associations between back pain across adulthood and spine shape in early old age in a British birth cohort.

We aimed to examine whether back pain across adulthood was associated with spine shape at age 60-64 years. Data were from 1405 participants in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a nationally representative British birth cohort. Back pain was ascertained during nurse interviews at ages 36, 43, 53 and 60-64 years. Cumulative exposure to back pain was then derived by counting the number of ages at which back pain was reported. Statistical shape modelling was used to characterise thoracolumbar spine shape using lateral dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry images which were ascertained at age 60-64 years. Linear regression models were used to test associations of spine shape modes (SM) with: (1) cumulative exposure to back pain; (2) back pain reports during different periods of adulthood. After adjusting for sex, higher cumulative exposure to back pain across adulthood was associated with wedge-shaped L4-5 disc (lower SM4 scores) and smaller disc spaces (higher SM8 scores) in both sexes. In addition, reporting of back pain at ages 53 and/or 60-64 years was associated with smaller L4-5 disc space (lower SM6 scores) in men but not women. These findings suggest that back pain across adulthood may be associated with specific variations in spine shapes in early old age.

Variation in lifting kinematics related to individual intrinsic lumbar curvature: an investigation in healthy adults.

OBJECTIVE: Lifting postures are frequently implicated in back pain. We previously related responses to a static load with intrinsic spine shape, and here we investigate the role of lumbar spine shape in lifting kinematics. METHODS: Thirty healthy adults (18-65 years) performed freestyle, stoop and squat lifts with a weighted box (6-15 kg, self-selected) while being recorded by Vicon motion capture. Internal spine shape was characterised using statistical shape modelling (SSM) from standing mid-sagittal MRIs. Associations were investigated between spine shapes quantified by SSM and peak flexion angles. RESULTS: Two SSM modes described variations in overall lumbar curvature (mode 1 (M1), 55% variance) and the evenness of curvature distribution (mode 2 (M2), 12% variance). M1 was associated with greater peak pelvis (r=0.38, p=0.04) and smaller knee flexion (r=-0.40, p=0.03) angles; individuals with greater curviness preferred to lift with a stooped lifting posture. This was confirmed by analysis of those individuals with very curvy or very straight spines (|M1|>1 SD). There were no associations between peak flexion angles and mode scores in stoop or squat trials (p>0.05). Peak flexion angles were positively correlated between freestyle and squat trials but not between freestyle and stoop or squat and stoop, indicating that individuals adjusted knee flexion while maintaining their preferred range of lumbar flexion and that 'squatters' adapted better to different techniques than 'stoopers'. CONCLUSION: Spinal curvature affects preferred lifting styles, and individuals with curvier spines adapt more easily to different lifting techniques. Lifting tasks may need to be tailored to an individual's lumbar spine shape.

Body mass index and waist circumference in early adulthood are associated with thoracolumbar spine shape at age 60-64: The Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development.

This study investigated associations between measures of adiposity from age 36 and spine shape at 60-64 years. Thoracolumbar spine shape was characterised using statistical shape modelling on lateral dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry images of the spine from 1529 participants of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, acquired at age 60-64. Associations of spine shape modes with: 1) contemporaneous measures of total and central adiposity (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC)) and body composition (android:gynoid fat mass ratio and lean and fat mass indices, calculated as whole body (excluding the head) lean or fat mass (kg) divided by height2 (m)2); 2) changes in total and central adiposity between age 36 and 60-64 and 3) age at onset of overweight, were tested using linear regression models. Four modes described 79% of the total variance in spine shape. In men, greater lean mass index was associated with a larger lordosis whereas greater fat mass index was associated with straighter spines. Greater current BMI was associated with a more uneven curvature in men and with larger anterior-posterior (a-p) vertebral diameters in both sexes. Greater WC and fat mass index were also associated with a-p diameter in both sexes. There was no clear evidence that gains in BMI and WC during earlier stages of adulthood were associated with spine shape but younger onset of overweight was associated with a more uneven spine and greater a-p diameter. In conclusion, sagittal spine shapes had different associations with total and central adiposity; earlier onset of overweight and prior measures of WC were particularly important.

Investigation of the Relationship Between Susceptibility Loci for Hip Osteoarthritis and Dual X-Ray Absorptiometry-Derived Hip Shape in a Population-Based Cohort of Perimenopausal Women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine relationships between known osteoarthritis (OA) susceptibility loci and hip shape in a population-based cohort of perimenopausal women in order to investigate whether hip shape contributes to OA development. METHODS: Hip shape was measured, using statistical shape modeling, on dual x-ray absorptiometry scans of the hip from mothers in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). The proximal femur and superior acetabulum were outlined, and independent hip shape modes were generated. In a subregional model, points were restricted to the acetabulum and superior femoral head. Associations between 11 OA-related single-nucleotide polymorphisms, identified by literature search, and shape modes were analyzed in a multivariate canonical correlation analysis. RESULTS: A total of 3,111 women (mean age 48 years) had genetic and hip shape data. The KLHDC5/PTHLH rs10492367 OA risk allele was associated with a wider upper femur in the whole shape model (P = 1 × 10-5 ). The DOT1L rs12982744 OA risk allele was associated with reduced superior joint space in the subregional shape model (P = 2 × 10-3 ). The COL11A1 rs4907986 OA risk allele was associated with lateral displacement of the femoral head relative to the acetabulum in the subregional shape model (P = 5 × 10-4 ). Regional association plots identified an additional COL11A1 locus in moderate linkage disequilibrium with rs4907986, which was more strongly associated with hip shape (rs10047217; P = 3 × 10-6 ). Colocalization analysis indicated sharing of genetic signals for hip shape and hip OA for the KLHDC5/PTHLH and COL11A1 loci. CONCLUSION: Hip OA susceptibility loci were associated with shape in this study, suggesting that these loci (and potentially yet-to-be-identified hip OA loci) could contribute to hip OA in later life via perturbing biologic pathways that mediate morphology development.

Associations between body mass index across adult life and hip shapes at age 60 to 64: Evidence from the 1946 British birth cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of body mass index (BMI) across adulthood with hip shapes at age 60-64years. METHODS: Up to 1633 men and women from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development with repeat measures of BMI across adulthood and posterior-anterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density images of the proximal femur recorded at age 60-64 were included in analyses. Statistical shape modelling was applied to quantify independent variations in hip mode (HM), of which the first 6 were examined in relation to: i) BMI at each age of assessment; ii) BMI gain during different phases of adulthood; iii) age first overweight. RESULTS: Higher BMI at all ages (i.e. 15 to 60-64) and greater gains in BMI were associated with higher HM2 scores in both sexes (with positive HM2 values representing a shorter femoral neck and a wider and flatter femoral head). Similarly, younger age first overweight was associated with higher HM2 scores but only in men once current BMI was accounted for. In men, higher BMI at all ages was also associated with lower HM4 scores (with negative HM4 values representing a flatter femoral head, a wider neck and smaller neck shaft angle) but no associations with BMI gain or prolonged exposure to high BMI were found. Less consistent evidence of associations was found between BMI and the other four HMs. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that BMI across adulthood may be associated with specific variations in hip shapes in early old age.

Statistical shape modelling of hip and lumbar spine morphology and their relationship in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development.

The anatomical shape of bones and joints is important for their proper function but quantifying this, and detecting pathological variations, is difficult to do. Numerical descriptions would also enable correlations between joint shapes to be explored. Statistical shape modelling (SSM) is a method of image analysis employing pattern recognition statistics to describe and quantify such shapes from images; it uses principal components analysis to generate modes of variation describing each image in terms of a set of numerical scores after removing global size variation. We used SSM to quantify the shapes of the hip and the lumbar spine in dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images from 1511 individuals in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development at ages 60-64 years. We compared shapes of both joints in men and women and hypothesised that hip and spine shape would be strongly correlated. We also investigated associations with height, weight, body mass index (BMI) and local (hip or lumber spine) bone mineral density. In the hip, all except one of the first 10 modes differed between men and women. Men had a wider femoral neck, smaller neck-shaft angle, increased presence of osteophytes and a loss of the femoral head/neck curvature compared with women. Women presented with a flattening of the femoral head and greater acetabular coverage of the femoral head. Greater weight was associated with a shorter, wider femoral neck and larger greater and lesser trochanters. Taller height was accompanied by a flattening of the curve between superior head and neck and a larger lesser trochanter. Four of the first eight modes describing lumbar spine shape differed between men and women. Women tended to have a more lordotic spine than men with relatively smaller but caudally increasing anterior-posterior (a-p) vertebral diameters. Men were more likely to have a straighter spine with larger vertebral a-p diameters relative to vertebral height than women, increasing cranially. A weak correlation was found between body weight and a-p vertebral diameter. No correlations were found between shape modes and height in men, whereas in women there was a weak positive correlation between height and evenness of spinal curvature. Linear relationships between hip and spine shapes were weak and inconsistent in both sexes, thereby offering little support for our hypothesis. In conclusion, men and women entering their seventh decade have small but statistically significant differences in the shapes of their hips and their spines. Associations with height, weight, BMI and BMD are small and correspond to subtle variations whose anatomical significance is not yet clear. Correlations between hip and spine shapes are small.

MRI and the distribution of bone marrow fat in hip osteoarthritis.

PURPOSE: To characterize the distribution of bone marrow fat in hip osteoarthritis (OA) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to assess its use as a potential biomarker. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In all, 67 subjects (39 female, 28 male) with either total hip replacement (THA) or different severities of radiographic OA, assessed by Kellgren-Lawrence grading (KLG), underwent 3T MRI of the pelvis using the IDEAL sequence to separate fat and water signals. Six regions of interest (ROIs) were identified within the proximal femur. Within each ROI the fractional-fat distribution, represented by pixel intensities, was described by its mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and entropy. RESULTS: Hips were graded: 12 as severe symptomatic (THA), 33 had KLG0 or 1, 9 were KLG2, 11 with KLG3, and 2 with KLG4 were analyzed together. The fractional-fat content in the whole proximal femur did not vary with severity in males (mean (SD) 91.2 (6.0)%) but reduced with severity in females from 89.1 (6.7)% (KLG0,1), 91.5 (2.9)% (KLG2), 85.8 (16.7)% (KLG3,4) to 77.5 (11.9)% (THA) (analysis of variance [ANOVA] P = 0.029). These differences were most pronounced in the femoral head, where mean values fell with OA severity in both sexes from 97.9% (2.5%) (KLG0,1) to 73.0% (25.9%) (THA, P < 0.001) with the largest difference at the final stage. The standard deviation and the entropy of the distribution both increased (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Descriptors of the fractional fat distribution varied little with the severity of OA until the most severe stage, when changes appeared mainly in the femoral head, and have, therefore, limited value as biomarkers. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;45:42-50.

Bone morphology of the femur and tibia captured by statistical shape modelling predicts rapid bone loss in acute spinal cord injury patients.

After spinal cord injury (SCI), bone loss in the paralysed limbs progresses at variable rates. Decreases in bone mineral density (BMD) in the first year range from 1% (slow) to 40% (rapid). In chronic SCI, fragility fractures commonly occur around the knee, with significant associated morbidity. Osteoporosis treatments await full evaluation in SCI, but should be initiated early and targeted towards patients exhibiting rapid bone loss. The potential to predict rapid bone loss from a single bone scan within weeks of a SCI was investigated using statistical shape modelling (SSM) of bone morphology, hypothesis: baseline bone shape predicts bone loss at 12-months post-injury at fracture-prone sites. In this retrospective cohort study 25 SCI patients (median age, 33 years) were scanned at the distal femur and proximal tibia using peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography at <5 weeks (baseline), 4, 8 and 12 months post-injury. An SSM was made for each bone. Links between the baseline shape-modes and 12-month total and trabecular BMD loss were analysed using multiple linear regression. One mode from each SSM significantly predicted bone loss (age-adjusted P<0.05 R(2)=0.37-0.61) at baseline. An elongated intercondylar femoral notch (femur mode 4, +1 SD from the mean) was associated with 8.2% additional loss of femoral trabecular BMD at 12-months. A more concave posterior tibial fossa (tibia mode 3, +1 SD) was associated with 9.4% additional 12-month tibial trabecular BMD loss. Baseline bone shape determined from a single bone scan is a valid imaging biomarker for the prediction of 12-month bone loss in SCI patients.

Reproducibility and Diagnostic Accuracy of Kellgren-Lawrence Grading for Osteoarthritis Using Radiographs and Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry Images.

Advances in image quality from modern dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scanners now allow near radiograph-like quality images at a low radiation dose. This opens potential new applications for the use of DXA scanners to study other musculoskeletal conditions, such as osteoarthritis, which is often investigated by visual assessment of radiographs. Together, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis are the 2 most common musculoskeletal conditions, both of which primarily affect older people. The aim of this study was to determine whether Kellgren-Lawrence grading of DXA images can be used to grade hip osteoarthritis as effectively as radiographs. People who had attended for recent pelvic radiographs underwent DXA of hips (50 hips from 25 people) using a GE Healthcare iDXA scanner. Three observers assigned Kellgren-Lawrence grades to each image, and grading was repeated at least 1 week apart. Intraobserver and interobserver reliability for radiographs and DXA images were calculated using quadratic-weighted kappa (QWK). People were recalled 12 months later, and the tests were repeated with both the radiograph and DXA scans taken within 2 weeks of each other. Hip DXA intraobserver reproducibility achieved a QWK range of 0.88-0.95 and interobserver reproducibility of 0.85-0.88, similar to QWK from hip radiographs. Intraobserver reliability between subject-matched radiograph and iDXA images revealed QWK ranging between 0.80 and 0.88. Reproducibility of hip osteoarthritis grading using DXA was comparable with that of radiographs in this study and similar to repeatability scores previously published in literature. Given the lower radiation dose and the opportunity to simultaneously investigate osteoporosis, DXA presents an attractive imaging option for osteoarthritis.

The lumbar spine has an intrinsic shape specific to each individual that remains a characteristic throughout flexion and extension.

PURPOSE: We have previously shown that the lumbar spine has an intrinsic shape specific to the individual and characteristic of sitting, standing and supine postures. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that this intrinsic shape is detectable throughout a range of postures from extension to full flexion in healthy adults. METHODS: Sagittal images of the lumbar spine were taken using a positional MRI with participants (n = 30) adopting six postures: seated extension, neutral standing, standing with 30, 45 and 60° and full flexion. Active shape modelling (ASM) was used to identify and quantify 'modes' of variation in the shape of the lumbar spine. RESULTS: ASM showed that 89.5% of the variation in the shape of the spine could be explained by the first two modes; describing the overall curvature and the distribution of curvature of the spine. Mode scores were significantly correlated between all six postures (modes 1-9, r = 0.4-0.97, P < 0.05), showing that an element of intrinsic shape was maintained when changing postures. The spine was most even in seated extension (P < 0.001) and most uneven between 35 and 45° flexion (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that an individual's intrinsic lumbar spine shape is quantifiable and detectable throughout lumbar flexion and extension. These findings will enable the role of lumbar curvature in injury and low back pain to be assessed in the clinic and in the working and recreational environments.

Predicting OA progression to total hip replacement: can we do better than risk factors alone using active shape modelling as an imaging biomarker?

OBJECTIVE: Previously, active shape modelling (ASM) of the proximal femur was shown to identify those individuals at highest risk of developing radiographic OA. Here we determine whether ASM predicts the need for total hip replacement (THR) independent of Kellgren-Lawrence grade (KLG) and other known risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 141 subjects consulting primary care with new hip pain was conducted. Pelvic radiographs taken on recruitment were assessed for KLG, centre-edge angle, acetabular depth and femoral head migration. Clinical factors (duration of pain, use of a stick and physical function) were collected by self-completed questionnaires. ASM differences between shape mode scores at baseline for individuals who underwent THR during the 5-year follow-up (n = 27) and those whose OA did not progress radiographically (n = 75) were compared. RESULTS: A 1 s.d. reduction in baseline ASM mode 2 score was associated with an 81% reduction in odds of THR (OR = 0.19, 95% CI 0.52, 0.70) after adjustment for KLG, radiographic and clinical factors. A similar reduction in odds of THR was associated with a 1 s.d. reduction in mode 3 (OR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.28, 0.71) and a 1 s.d. increase in mode 4 score (OR = 2.8, 95% CI 1.7, 4.7), although these associations were no longer significant after adjustment for KLG and clinical factors. CONCLUSION: ASM of the hip joint is a reliable early biomarker of radiographic OA severity, which can improve the ability to identify patients at higher risk of rapid progression and poor outcome even when KLG and clinical risk factors are taken into account.

The functional ACTN3 577X variant increases the risk of falling in older females: results from two large independent cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Falls among elderly people is a major issue in public health, causing debilitating outcomes including fracture. The identification of genetic risk factors for falling may provide a strategy for effectively targeting falls prevention programs. We investigated whether a common functional variant of skeletal muscle α-actinin-3 (ACTN3 p. R577X) previously associated with impairments in muscle strength, power, and physical functioning represents a risk factor for falls. METHODS: Case-control analysis was conducted using two large cohorts of Caucasian postmenopausal women--the North of Scotland Osteoporosis Study (n = 1,245) and the Aberdeen Prospective Osteoporosis Screening Study (n = 2,918)--for whom self-reported falls status and DNA samples were available. Cross-sectional analysis of fallers versus nonfallers at baseline and follow-up was performed. In addition, individuals who reported having fallen at more than one timepoint (recurrent fallers) were compared with those who reported not falling at any timepoint. RESULTS: Association between R577X genotype and falls was identified and validated. Carriage of 577X (one or two copies) was significantly associated with a 33% (10%-61%) increased risk of falling, with the effect apparent at both baseline and follow-up assessments (meta-analysis p = .003 and p = .02, respectively). No significant effect on recurrent falls was observed. CONCLUSION: This study reports for the first time that the functional ACTN3 R577X genotype represents a genetic risk factor for falling in older females.

Vitamin D status in postmenopausal women living at higher latitudes in the UK in relation to bone health, overweight, sunlight exposure and dietary vitamin D.

For 5 months a year the UK has insufficient sunlight for cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D and winter requirements are met from stores made the previous summer. Although there are few natural dietary sources, dietary intake may help maintain vitamin D status. We investigated the relationship between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), bone health, overweight, sunlight exposure and dietary vitamin D in 3113 women (age 54.8 [SD 2.3] years) living at latitude 57 degrees N between 1998-2000. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), dietary intakes (food frequency questionnaire, n=2598), sunlight exposure (questionnaire, n=2402) and bone markers were assessed. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry in all women at the sampling visit and 6 years before. Seasonal variation in 25(OH)D was not substantial with a peak in the autumn (23.7 [9.9] ng/ml) and a nadir in spring (19.7 [7.6] ng/ml). Daily intake of vitamin D was 4.2 [2.5] mug from food only and 5.8 [4.0] mug including vitamin D from cod liver oil and multivitamins. The latter was associated with 25(OH)D at each season whereas vitamin D simply from food was associated with 25(OH)D in winter and spring only. Sunlight exposure was associated with 25(OH)D in summer and autumn. 25(OH)D was negatively associated with increased bone resorption and bone loss (P<0.05) remaining significant after adjustment for confounders (age, weight, height, menopausal status/HRT use, physical activity and socio-economic status). Using an insufficiency cut-off of <28 ng/ml 25(OH)D, showed lower concentrations of bone resorption markers in the upper category (fDPD/Cr 5.1 [1.7] nmol/mmol compared to 5.3 [2.1] nmol/mmol, P=0.03) and no difference in BMD or bone loss. 25(OH)D was lower (P<0.01) and parathyroid hormone higher (P<0.01) in the top quintile of body mass index. In conclusion, low vitamin D status is associated with greater bone turnover, bone loss and obesity. Diet appears to attenuate the seasonal variation of vitamin D status in early postmenopausal women at northerly latitude where quality of sunlight for production of vitamin D is diminished.